The Market Shift No Refiner Can Ignore 

Since early 2026, the global base oil market has shifted sharply. ​​Group III base stocks are in critically tight supply, with prices at record highs. Refiners with hydrocracking capability have a direct opportunity to capture value.​ 

The Hydrocracker Advantage 

​​Fuels and Lube (FL) refineries with Hydrocrackers can flex production toward Group III base stocks. However, following are a few major constraints limiting this flexibility:​ 

  • ​​Crude availability: supply is tight, and not every available barrel meets the Group III threshold​ 
  • ​​Catalyst longevity: sustaining Group III maximization puts significant stress on catalyst systems​ 
  • ​​Middle distillate commitments: existing supply obligations cannot be ignored.​ 

​​Success depends on tight coordination across the full chain, from crude selection to finished base stock output.​ 

What the Data Tells Us 

Data from the 2024 Solomon Lube Study and Fuels & Lube Study reveals a clear performance gap: 

​​Figure 1. Top4L: Average of the top four Hydroprocessing-type Lube plants selected from Solomon's 2024 Lube Study, based on weighted performance metrics including energy intensity, utilization, and productivity.​ ​​Non Top4L: All other hydroprocessing lube plants in the same study.​


​​Key Insight: The Top4L produce a broader base stock portfolio than their peers, giving them greater flexibility to respond to shifting market demand.​ 

​​The FL refineries housing these Top 4 Lube plants generate higher net cash margins per barrel of crude input than their peers.
​

​​What's Coming: Solomon's 2026 Lube Study & Fuels & Lube Combined Site Study​ 

​​​​The Solomon 2026 Lube Study and Fuels & Lube Combined Site Study will benchmark performance against three key market forces:​ 

  • Surging Group III base stock demand 
  • Favorable base stock-to-middle distillate price spreads 
  • Shifting crude availability landscape 

​​
The study will cover:​ 

Performance What It Reveals
Hydrocracker & Catalytic Dewaxer Yield and Utilization Impact of conversion strategy changes on Group III output and middle distillate yield
Base Stock Yield Pattern Changes Product slate changes driven by market conditions
Impact on Overall Refinery Margin Financial impact of base stock yield optimization on refinery margins

​​Position Your Refinery for What's Next. Contact Solomon to learn more about participating in the 2026 Lube Study or Fuels & Lube Combined Site Study.​ 

Learn More about the upcoming Lube Study

Subscribe to receive periodic emails based on your area(s) of interest: Refining, Chemicals, Upstream, Midstream, Power Generation, Reliability & Maintenance.

RELATED SOLUTIONS

Lube Study

Solomon's Lube Study measures areas critical to your success: reliability, equipment utilization, operating expenses, competitive gross margin, and industry performance ranges. >50% of lube base oil capacity is represented. 3,000–5,000 data points per facility are collected.
Fuels Study

Participation in our Fuels Study ensures you know where your refinery stands in all key performance areas, with valuable, data-driven insight and information, including industry trends, to guide performance improvement efforts.
Combined Site Study

Solomon's Combined Site Study provides valuable insight into industry trends and key performance areas of your own refineries at the combined-site level. All of these studies help you identify the level of performance improvement needed to remain competitive.
Refining Benchmarking

Using patented methodologies and extensive industry experience, we identify what drives sustainable high performance. Comparing asset performance against industry peers is essential for identifying and developing effective “data-driven” tactical and strategic plans to keep your refinery competitive in the years ahead.
Refining Advisory Services

Solomon is your trusted guide to sustainable performance excellence. From closing gaps and addressing challenges identified in one of our benchmarking studies, to receiving expert guidance to address a wide range of operational opportunities or challenges, we can help.